N.Korea 'Moves Long-Range Missiles Around the Country

U.S. intelligence agencies say North Korea is moving mobile missile launchers around the country carrying intercontinental ballistic missiles, the New York Times said Thursday.

The missile was first spotted in a military parade marking the 100th anniversary of the birth of North Korea's founder Kim Il-sung in April last year. At the time, pundits said it was probably a life-sized mock-up.


"The new mobile missile, called the KN-08, has not yet been operationally deployed, and American officials say it may not be ready for some time," the paper said.

"But the discovery that the mobile units have already been dispersed around the country, where they can be easily hidden, has prompted the White House, the Pentagon and intelligence agencies to reassess whether North Korea's missile capabilities are improving at a pace that poses a new challenge to American defenses."

North Korea does not seem to have tested the missile. It is estimated to be 2 m wide and 18 m long with a range of between 5,000 to 6,000 km. The 16-wheeled mobile launcher was smuggled in from China.

N.Korea 'Moves Long-Range Missiles Around the Country'

U.S. intelligence agencies say North Korea is moving mobile missile launchers around the country carrying intercontinental ballistic missiles, the New York Times said Thursday.

The missile was first spotted in a military parade marking the 100th anniversary of the birth of North Korea's founder Kim Il-sung in April last year. At the time, pundits said it was probably a life-sized mock-up. The new mobile missile, called the KN-08, has not yet been operationally deployed, and American officials say it may not be ready for some time," the paper said.

"But the discovery that the mobile units have already been dispersed around the country, where they can be easily hidden, has prompted the White House, the Pentagon and intelligence agencies to reassess whether North Korea's missile capabilities are improving at a pace that poses a new challenge to American defenses."

North Korea does not seem to have tested the missile. It is estimated to be 2 m wide and 18 m long with a range of between 5,000 to 6,000 km. The 16-wheeled mobile launcher was smuggled in from China.

The New York Times said Pyongyang may be sending Washington a message or is at least trying to draw its attention by intentionally moving the missile launchers around the country, where they are likely to be spotted by U.S. spy satellites.

Policy on North Korea

It’s time to seek new path of reconciliation

This week, two events involving North Korea occurred amid signs of change in the impoverished country.

One was a visit by a Chinese special envoy to President-elect Park Geun-hye and the other was a trip to the North by a group of Americans led by former New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson. And the results from the two events appear to be positive.

During her meeting with China’s Vice Foreign Minister Zhang Zhijun in Seoul Thursday, Park flashed her message of reconciliation, saying, ``Doors will be open for dialogue and cooperation through a `trust-building process.’’’ Of course, the country’s first female leader made sure that North Korea’s nuclear weapons development and additional provocations won’t be tolerated.

Upon returning from his four-day trip to Pyongyang Thursday, Richardson said in Beijing that the North seems to have been encouraged by statements made by Park on the need to improve inter-Korean relations. These statements are based on her election pledge to engage with Pyongyang despite its continuing nuclear program and long-range rocket launch last month.

During her campaign, Park distanced herself from outgoing President Lee Myung-bak’s hard-line policy toward Pyongyang. Also, her policy on North Korea is a far cry from the Sunshine Policy pursued by previous liberal governments.

She underscores the need for greater engagement, making clear that earlier inter-Korean agreements will be honored and that she is willing to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un who took over a year ago following the death of his father. What sets Park apart from President Lee clearly is that she commits herself to separating politics from humanitarian issues.

The inter-Korean relationship has been stalled over the last five years because the incumbent administration stuck to its reciprocal and condition-laden stance. But this was inevitable in some respects, considering Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile buildup and the brutal military attacks in 2010 that killed 50 South Koreans.

But the time has come for the two Koreas to seek a new path of reconciliation and cooperation, given the leadership changes in South and North Korea, the United States and China.

What draws attention, in particular, is whether Seoul will change its position on the sanctions imposed on North Korea in May 2010 in the wake of the sinking of the Cheonan in the West Sea. Still, it’s too early to say that the South will lift sanctions unilaterally, but Seoul needs to act resolutely in accordance with the progress in inter-Korean dialogue.

North Korea vows to bolster war defenses

North Korea vowed Monday to strengthen its defenses amid concerns the country may conduct a nuclear test as a follow-up to last month's long-range rocket launch.

Citing U.S. hostility, Pyongyang's Foreign Ministry said in a memorandum that North Korea will "continue to strengthen its deterrence against all forms of war."

The memorandum carried by state media did not say what action North Korea would take to defend itself. However, North Korea has claimed the right to build atomic weapons to protect itself from the United States, which stations more than 28,000 troops in South Korea.

North Korea sent a satellite into space on Dec. 12 aboard a long-range rocket, a launch that the U.S. and its allies have criticized as a test of banned ballistic missile technology.

In 2006 and 2009, Pyongyang conducted atomic tests after being slapped with U.N. Security Council condemnation and sanctions for similar launches of long-range rockets.

North Korea's Foreign Ministry urged the Washington to dismantle the U.S.-led U.N. Command, which oversees an armistice signed at the close of the Korean War in 1953. It accused the U.S. of trying to turn the U.N. Command into a NATO-like regional military bloc.

"Whether the U.S. immediately dismantles the U.N. Command or not will serve as the acid stone in deciding whether the U.S. will maintain or not its anti-(North Korea) hostile policy," said the memorandum, which was carried by the official Korean Central News Agency.

The Korean War armistice was never replaced with a peace treaty, leaving the Korean Peninsula in a technical state of war 60 years later. 

Report: North Korea Has Warned China That They Will Be Conducting A Nuclear Test Next Week

    A North Korean official has apparently told Chinese authorities that the communist state is planning to conduct a third nuclear test in the coming week, a news report said Saturday.
"We've heard a North Korean official in Beijing told the Chinese side that the North planned to carry out a nuclear test between January 13-20," the Joongang Ilbo daily quoted an unidentified Seoul official as saying.
South Korean officials have a policy of not commenting on intelligence matters.
"We're now stepping up surveillance over the Punggye-ri nuclear test site," the official said in reference to the North's only nuclear test site, where tests were carried out in 2006 and 2009.
With the UN Security Council still debating possible sanctions against the North following the launch of a long-range rocket last month, there has been widespread speculation that Pyongyang may carry out a third nuclear test.
However, Professor Yang Moo-Jin of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul said there were "no signs of a nuclear test being imminent".
"Chances are slim that the North might push ahead with a nuclear test in this winter season, especially when China is insisting on a moderated response to the rocket launch to prevent a third nuclear test taking place," Yang told AFP.

Kerry Seen Likely to Favor Greater Engagement With North Korea

As U.S. secretary of State, Senator John Kerry will probably initially favor a policy of more engagement toward routinely hostile North Korea than that pursued by Hillary Clinton’s State Department, issue experts said on Thursday.

President Obama nominated Kerry as his top diplomat in December, and the longtime Democratic lawmaker from Massachusetts is expected to pass easily through the Senate confirmation process.

During his substantial tenure on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Kerry has at times called for more U.S. involvement with the isolated North that focuses on intermediate objectives such as resumption of humanitarian assistance and bilateral negotiations aimed at pausing Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons development.

In a June 2011 commentary for the Los Angeles Times, Kerry faulted Washington’s engagement approach toward Pyongyang. “Our current approach of strong sanctions and intense coordination with South Korea and Japan does not provide sufficient leverage to stabilize the situation, much less bring about a change in North Korean behavior,” he wrote.

It has been the Obama administration’s policy on North Korea for some time that a return to formal aid-for-denuclearization negations be preconditioned on concrete demonstrations by Pyongyang of its sincerity to shutter its nuclear weapons program and to improve relations with Seoul.

Kerry “will be much more forward-leaning and more interested in a less conditional approach to North Korea than Secretary Clinton has had or would be the mood of the overall Obama administration,” said Bruce Klingner, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation specializing in Northeast Asia.

Early in his first term, Obama said Washington was willing to hold direct talks with Pyongyang that were hoped to lead to a resumption of a regional process aimed at rewarding North Korea’s gradual denuclearization with timed infusions of economic assistance and international security pledges. Obama appointed special envoys to North Korea -- Stephen Bosworth followed by Glyn Davies -- something that the George W. Bush administration did not do.

A number of official bilateral meetings in the last four years have failed to restart the paralyzed six-party nuclear talks involving China, Japan, both Koreas, Russia, and the United States or to prod the pariah nation into reforming its behavior. The U.S. stance has hardened since 2009 as the North conducted its second nuclear test, unveiled a uranium enrichment plant, and launched seve

ral long-range rockets, among other provocations.

The near-total isolation of North Korea by Washington and others has failed to halt the aspiring nuclear power’s push for a credible strategic deterrent. In December, the country conducted its first ever successful launch of a space rocket, an event widely seen as a test of ICBM technology. The North is also believed to be preparing for a third underground nuclear test.

Whatever inclination Kerry might have for more diplomatic outreach to Pyongyang, “he will be butting up on the skepticism and cynicism that the Obama administration has built up over its four years of trying to alter North Korea’s behavior,” Klingner said in an interview.

“I think we’ve engaged with the North Koreans a whole bunch and I’m hoping that John Kerry recognizes that the engagement doesn’t work,” said Richard Grenell, who served as spokesman for the U.S. mission to the United Nations during the Bush administration. “I also think that he is a realist in that he is going to see that the engagement strategy of the last decade hasn’t worked.”

Kerry’s Senate office said it could not comment on the North Korea issue while the nomination process is under way. A date for his confirmation hearing has yet to be set, but the State Department on Thursday said its staff has begun preparing the senator for the session before the Foreign Relations Committee he now chairs.

Kerry -- with support from the White House -- is likely to look for ways to freeze the growth of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program in the interim to achieving total irreversible denuclearization, Center for a New American Security Asia-Pacific regional expert Patrick Cronin said. The goal would be “how do we limit the risk of large-scale nuclear breakout,” he said.

One nuclear containment option would be to pursue a new deal to halt the North’s testing of missiles and nuclear devices as well as its production of new fissile material. The so-called 2012 Leap Day accord with the United States would have provided the Stalinist state with food aid had it taken such steps. However, the deal fell apart before it could be implemented after North Korea launched a long-range rocket in April.

“I just personally don’t think the concept of a [nuclear weapons work] freeze is going to be enough to be a starting point for a conversation unless there is some indication from the North Koreans that they are willing to consider subsequent steps that would lead to dismantling the program,” Stephen Haggard, a North Korea expert at University of California, San Diego, said in a Wednesday interview.

Pyongyang’s breach of the 2012 moratorium accord left a bad taste in the mouth of the Obama administration, according to Klingner, and created a “brick wall that Kerry will be banging his head against” should he try to argue with the White House for more engagement with the North.

At the same time, the election of Park Geun-hye to the South Korean presidency sets the stage for a year of greater engagement between the neighboring states. Park during the campaign signaled a willingness to hold a summit with North Korean ruler Kim Jong Un and to resume some monitored humanitarian assistance to the North.

“I think the Obama administration because it doesn’t have a great deal of hope of a breakthrough with North Korea … will likely allow or be eager for South Korea to lead on outreach,” Klingner said. The United States would want to ensure continued close coordination with Seoul, but there is a “very high comfort level in Washington” toward working with the incoming Park government, according to the Heritage expert.

Experts interviewed by Global Security Newswire agreed that dealing with North Korea is not likely to be a first priority for Kerry. Instead, responding to security developments in Iran, Syria, and elsewhere in the Middle East will take up more of his time.

“I think the North Korea issue hasn’t received as much media attention and because of that he will probably want to put it on a status quo path” Grenell said, adding “I would argue it hasn’t received the political attention it has [deserved] and so John Kerry should elevate it to the top tier.”

In speculating on the potential for Pyongyang to carry out fresh hostilities such as a third underground nuclear blast to test the resolve of the new South Korean and U.S. governments, Cronin noted. “North Korea doesn’t like to be ignored. It feels it gains leverage when it is being provocative.”

Ballistic missile: North Korea can reach the United States

According to South Korea, the recent firing of the rocket Unha-3 made by Pyongyang is equivalent to a test ballistic missile with a load of half a ton and a range of about 10,000 km.

The recent firing rocket by North Korea is equivalent to a test ballistic missile with a load of half a ton and a range of about 10,000 km, said Sunday the South Korean army. This distance would allow a North Korean pitcher to reach any point in Asia, Eastern Europe, Western Africa, Alaska and part of the West Coast, including San Francisco. Pyongyang launched on 12 December, with success, a rocket Unha-3 loaded into orbit a satellite civilian mission purely scientific as the North. To its estimates, the South Korean army relied on the analysis of oxidizer tank, a product by combining with another product operates the combustion of the latter fell at sea during launch and recovered by the Navy South. "Based on our analysis and process simulation, the missile is capable of flying more than 10,000 km, with a load of between 500 and 600 kg," said a spokesman for the Ministry of Defence to press.

Pyongan control Does technology ICBMs?

The tank was mounted on the first stage of the rocket. In the absence of debris 2nd and 3rd floors of the Unha-3, South Korean scientists have been unable to determine whether the rocket was able to reenter the atmosphere, a key technology of intercontinental ballistic missiles . Debris recovered by the South consisted of eight panels of aluminum and magnesium welded by hand. "The welding was coarse, handmade," said the ministry official, adding that this type of tank for storing toxic chemicals was rarely used by the powers have a advanced space technology.

According to a study by the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) published in 2011, Pyongyang has systems North Korean Taepodong, but BM-25/SS-N-6 Nodong and North Korea "should hold some Copies of longer-range gear deployed north of the country in fixed configurations. " However, the FRS estimates "in 2015 that North Korea will have two regiments Nodong missile type, that is to say, a dozen mobile launchers and several hundred missiles". And noted that "given the cooldown and preparation imposed by the Nodong system, and assuming that its mobile launchers undergo attrition zero, we can assume that North Korea would at most be able to make two launches for a day and a score launch before exhausting its stock of missiles. "

An atomic bomb North Korea?

The shooting of 12 December is considered by Washington and its allies as yet another test of long-range ballistic missile. It ended a long series of misfires that have earned a volley of Pyongyang sanctions since 2006 and allows the young North Korean leader, Kim Jong-Un, to strengthen his authority. Westerners and their Asian allies accuse Pyongyang to hold several nuclear bombs and carry out nuclear tests in order to achieve the miniaturization and install them on missiles. However, experts believe that it is far from having a reliable ballistic power and the development of a deliverable nuclear capability by intercontinental ballistic missile take much time.

North Korea: Kim Jong-Un ordered the development of larger rockets

The North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un ordered the scientists involved in the space industry to develop new rockets that are larger and more powerful than the one launched in mid-December, reported Saturday the Central News Agency the country (KCNA). "you must develop and launch a range of additional satellites, including communications satellites, rockets and larger capacity," he said Friday at a reception given by way of celebration the successful launch of a long-range rocket ten days ago. On December 12, North Korea launched a multistage rocket Unha-3 which orbited satellite Kwangmyongsong-3. Neighboring countries, including Japan, the United States and South Korea believe this is actually a test of an intercontinental ballistic missile that would have a range of 13,000 km. However, two resolutions of the UN Security Council to prohibit any activity Pyongyang nuclear or ballistic. North Korea says its engines are long-range satellite launchers civilian purposes.

N. Korea shipped missile parts to Syria: media

North Korea tried to export ballistic missile parts to Syria in May in violation of UN sanctions, Japanese media said Wednesday, citing diplomats who have seen a classified UN report.
South Korean authorities inspected North Korean cargo bound for Syria and confiscated hundreds of cylinders that could be used to build the weapons, the Asahi Shimbun said.
Seoul in June reported the discovery to the United Nation's North Korea sanctions committee, which then dispatched experts to South Korea to inspect the materials, the liberal daily said.
If confirmed, the reported action shows Pyongyang violated UN bans on trading military- and weapons-related materials, imposed successively since 2006 after nuclear tests by the secretive regime.
The 445 graphite cylinders were on a Chinese-registered freighter with a cargo bound for a Syrian company with North Korean links, Kyodo News said, citing UN diplomats.
The Asahi said South Korea confiscated 535 cylinders, disguised as lead pipes that would have no connection to ballistic missiles.
The finding was included in a report filed this month to members of a special committee that is charged with overseeing the implementation of sanctions imposed on North Korea, Kyodo said.
The apparent attempt at arms exports came shortly after the UN Security Council adopted a presidential statement calling for tougher sanctions against Pyongyang, which in April attempted but failed to launch a satellite.

The launch was widely seen by other nations as cover for a missile test.
The graphite cylinders found aboard the cargo ship Xin Yan Tai in South Korea's Busan port could be used for rocket nozzles and re-entry vehicle nose tips, Kyodo said.
The ship, registered in Shanghai, was built in 2005 and is owned by a Shanghai shipping company, Kyodo said, citing the China Classification Society of vessels.
The Shanghai firm's involvement in the case could pose a question over China's commitment to implementing sanctions on North Korea, Kyodo added.
The interim report was prepared by a panel of experts from the five permanent members of the Security Council, Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States, as well as Japan and South Korea, Kyodo said.
Every November, the panel turns over its interim report privately to the special committee to update the 15 council members on Pyongyang's sanctions violations, Kyodo said.
The interim report also says that Ukrainian authorities confirmed the arrests of two North Korean agents who attempted to steal ballistic missile technology from the former Soviet state, the Asahi said.
The panel will continue to investigate the cases involving the cylinders and the arrests in Ukraine, the Asahi added.

Satellite imagery shows North Korea missile activity in defiance of U.N. ban

Satellite imagery indicates North Korea has been testing rocket engines, a sign it continues to develop its long-range ballistic missiles, a U.S. academic institute said Monday.
The analysis provided to The Associated Press is based on satellite images taken as recently as late September of the Sohae site on the secretive country's northwest coast. In April, the North launched a rocket from there in a failed attempt to propel a satellite into space in defiance of a U.N. ban.
The analysis on the website of the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, which is called "38 North," said it remains unclear whether the North is preparing another rocket launch but predicted it may embark on new rocket and nuclear tests in the first half of 2013.
The analysis underscores the challenges posed by the North's weapons programs to the United States and its allies as President Barack Obama heads into his second term. Washington's most recent attempt to negotiate a freeze in the North's nuclear program and a test moratorium in exchange for food aid collapsed with the April launch that the U.S. regarded as a cover for testing ballistic missile technology.
In 2009, North Korea tested a long-range missile and its second nuclear weapon within months of Obama taking office, and the 38 North analysis says North Korea may conduct new tests in the aftermath of presidential elections recently completed in U.S. and due in December in South Korea. That could be viewed as a tactic to exert more pressure on the close allies as the North seeks recognition as a nuclear power.

Last month, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said North Korea continues to prepare for such tests, and the North, angered by Washington's recent agreement to let Seoul possess missiles capable of hitting all of its territory, has recently claimed that the U.S. mainland is within range of its missiles.
According to South Korea's Defense Ministry, North Korean missiles are believed to have a range of up to about 4,160 miles, putting parts of Alaska within reach. But the North is not believed to have mastered the technology needed to hit a distant target and miniaturize a nuclear warhead to mount on a missile. The North has a spotty record in test launches, raising doubts about whether it is truly capable of a long-distance attack.
The 38 North analysis concludes that since the failed launch on April 13 of the Unha-3 rocket that disintegrated shortly after takeoff, the North has conducted at least two, and possibly more, tests of large rocket motors at a test site about a half mile away. The tests are critical for the development of new rockets.
"Pyongyang's large motor tests are another clear sign that its missile program is moving forward. Whether there will be another long-range missile test this spring remains unclear but is a distinct possibility," said Joel Wit, a former U.S. State Department official and editor of 38 North.
An April 9 satellite image shows what appear to be dozens of fuel tanks near a stand used for conducting tests of rocket engines. A Sept. 17 image shows the tanks are no longer there, and a flame trench has been stained orange and surrounding vegetation has been burned from the exhaust of an engine. An image from Sept. 28 indicates a further test has taken place.
The analysis was written by Nick Hansen, a retired expert in imagery technology with a 43-year experience in national intelligence.
He concludes the tests were likely of the first-stage engines of the Unha-3 or the new, bigger KN-08 long-range missile first viewed in a military parade in Pyongyang shortly after the April launch attempt.
The capabilities of the KN-08 and whether it could pose a potential threat to the continental United States remains unclear. Some analysts have also questioned whether the half-dozen of KN-08 missiles shown at that parade were genuine or just rigged up for show.
The analysis by 38 North says the Sept. 28 images also show construction work on the upper platform of a launch tower at Sohae to enable it to accommodate even larger rockets than the Unha-3 or KN-08.

N. Korea ready to conduct nuke, missile tests: minister

South Korea's defence minister said Thursday that North Korea has completed preparations for another nuclear test, and would also test-launch long-range missiles sometime in the future.
"Many preparations have been made for a third nuclear test," Kim Kwan-Jin told reporters, adding the timing would depend on "a political decision".
The communist country carried out nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009.
Kim also predicted that the North would make another attempt at some time to test-fire a long-range missile, after the failure of its rocket launch in April.
Pyongyang said its intention was to put a peaceful research satellite into orbit, while Washington and its allies saw the exercise as a disguised test of banned ballistic missile technology.
In September, US website 38 North said satellite imagery showed the North had halted work at a site capable of launching intercontinental missiles, possibly setting the project back by up to two years.
The website of the US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies said the cause of the work stoppage was unclear, although heavy rain might be a factor.

The new launch pad, being built in the northeast of the country, had been scheduled for completion around 2015, it said.
Even if completion is delayed, Pyongyang could still test longer-range rockets at a northwestern base, the website said.
Satellite images showed "refurbishment" under way on an existing mobile launch pad used to test long-range rockets, it said.